I spill a variety of phrases about Denominator Blindness in “How To not Make investments.” The alternatives to display horrible examples of this framing error are unending. The newest instance — and some of the absurd circumstances of denominator blindness you’ll ever see — comes from someone who ought to know higher, Senator Ron Johnson.
Here’s what the Senator needed to say:
Ron Johnson: “In 56 years of monitoring Tylenol, there have been 39,540 demise reported to FAIRS. That’s 706 per yr. For ivermectin – keep in mind the one which they stated was so harmful? – in 29 years reporting, 493 deaths, 17 a yr.” 1
It’s a traditional denominator blindness instance, since you are NOT seeing the full variety of doses in query. By solely exhibiting the variety of deaths (the numerator) however not the dimensions of the info set (the denominator), we see an apparent try to mislead the viewer.
To do a good “Apples to Apples” comparability, the very first thing you would want is the variety of doses of every drug which are consumed yearly:
“Greater than 25 billion acetaminophen doses are bought within the US yearly.” That’s in 2023; this yr, the quantity is over 28 billion.” (See GMI, JAMA, and ATrain)
And Ivermectin?
“Roughly 450,000 outpatient prescriptions for ivermectin have been stuffed in the US in 2023.” (See Cognitive, ClinCalc).
In different phrases, there are roughly 50,000 instances extra doses of Acetaminophen, the lively ingredient in Tylenol, consumed every year than doses of Ivermectin.
If as few doses of Tylenol have been consumed every year as Ivermectin, there can be one Acetaminophen demise each 72 years.2
And, if as many doses of Ivermectin as Tylenol have been consumed every year, the physique rely within the U.S. for the antiparasitic drug can be over 850,000 deaths yearly. That will be like dropping your complete inhabitants of a metropolis like Indianapolis or San Francisco – yearly.
At all times listen when folks deliberately misrepresent numbers to deceive you. They’re as much as no good, and sometimes have a hand in your pocket…
Beforehand:
What Kills You and Your Investments (Might 21, 2014)
You Are Worrying Concerning the Fallacious Issues (October 22, 2014)
Don’t Endure From Denominator Blindness (October 14, 2015)
Shark vs. Mosquito Deaths (April 26, 2018)
Shark Assaults Illustrate an Investing Drawback (January 28, 2019)
Denominator Blindness, Shark Assault version (February 5, 2019)
Your Possibilities of Dying (July 25, 2019)
__________
1. I assume that “FAIRS” was a typo, and right here is meant to be FAERS: The FDA’s Hostile Occasion Reporting System.
2. Tylenol is the best-known model of the drug Acetaminophen; I take advantage of the 2 names interchangeably.
