“Canadian IG yields have gone from being a few of the highest within the G7 in 2021–22 to close the bottom in 2025,” the report observes. The BoC’s 25-basis-point discount in September helped lengthen that rally, with period now shorter and sensitivity to authorities yields decreased.
Credit score spreads have narrowed by roughly 100 to 120 foundation factors since 2023 as company leverage has stayed contained and authorities borrowing surged. The report attributes a lot of the current power to prudent stability sheet administration, significantly amongst BBB-rated issuers, which “have typically outperformed through the robust credit score rally in 2023–25.”
Vitality and infrastructure dominate the Canadian investment-grade universe, collectively accounting for greater than 60% of issuance. In the meantime, excessive yield markets stay closely tilted towards vitality at about 45% of the index, providing a definite profile from US excessive yield publicity, the place vitality represents solely 11%.
Canadian excessive yield has benefitted from the BoC’s easing bias, delivering one other quarter of outperformance regardless of world commerce frictions. The report highlights that “traders get larger safety in Canadian HY, than US, because the proportion of yield that’s risk-free is decrease in Canada, after the autumn in Canadian govt yields versus the US.”
Whereas long-term curves have steepened since midyear, spreads for provinces and municipalities have tightened. Even Alberta’s bonds, which briefly widened on political issues earlier in 2025, have since stabilized.
